Casino Bonus EV Calculator

What this calculator does that others don't

Most bonus EV calculators stop at bonus − (turnover × house edge). That formula assumes you reach the wagering target. In reality your bankroll has a non-trivial chance of going to zero before you complete it — especially on high-variance slots played at large bet sizes.

We add three things on top of the gross EV calculation:

• Variance drag — additional expected loss from session-level bankroll volatility
• Completion probability — empirical chance your bankroll survives the full WR cycle
• Free spins EV — a separate lane, because FS often don't have the same wagering as bonus cash

How to read the result

Takemeans the math is genuinely on your side and your bankroll is large enough that variance shouldn't bust you mid-wager. Goodis mildly positive — you'll do fine on average. Marginal is break-even territory where variance dominates the outcome. Pass and Avoid mean the bonus is structured against you.

Try it on Wild Fortune's welcome package

The default preset matches Wild Fortune Casino's live 225% match up to CA$7,500 + 250 free spins (0× wagering on FS, 40× on bonus cash, 96.5% slot RTP). Adjust your deposit, variance band, and bet size to see how the EV picture changes for your situation. Read the full bonus EV master guide →

Frequently asked questions

What does "variance drag" actually mean?

On a high-variance slot at $1/spin clearing a 40× WR on $100 bonus ($4,000 turnover), Monte Carlo simulation shows you bust before completion roughly 38–42% of the time. That risk isn't reflected in standard EV math — variance drag is our quantification of it.

Why does bet size matter for EV?

Larger bets relative to bonus mean fewer spins to complete WR — fewer opportunities to ride out variance. The Kelly criterion suggests ~1–3% of bonus per spin for +EV bonus hunting; bigger bets multiply the variance drag.

Why is Wild Fortune the preset?

It's a genuinely competitive bonus on the AU+CA market. 0× wagering on free spins is rare; 40× WR on bonus cash is median; 96.5% RTP on the main slot library is above average. The math is favourable enough that we use it as a benchmark for "what +EV looks like."

Does this work for cashback or reload bonuses?

Not directly — this calculator is built for deposit-match bonuses with attached wagering. For cashback, the EV formula is simpler (cashback rate − house edge × turnover) and we cover it in the master guide.

18+ only. This tool estimates mathematical expected value and does not predict individual session outcomes. Gambling involves real financial risk. Safer-gambling resources.